000 02249nam a2200361 i 4500
001 CR9781139963329
003 UkCbUP
005 20240909171809.0
006 m|||||o||d||||||||
007 cr||||||||||||
008 140320s2014||||enk o ||1 0|eng|d
020 _a9781139963329 (ebook)
020 _z9781107081598 (hardback)
020 _z9781107441613 (paperback)
040 _aUkCbUP
_beng
_erda
_cUkCbUP
050 0 0 _aHB141
_b.F69 2014
082 0 0 _a330.01/12
_223
100 1 _aFranses, Philip Hans,
_d1963-
_eauthor.
245 1 0 _aExpert adjustments of model forecasts :
_btheory, practice and strategies for improvement /
_cPhilip Hans Franses.
264 1 _aCambridge :
_bCambridge University Press,
_c2014.
300 _a1 online resource (xvi, 127 pages) :
_bdigital, PDF file(s).
336 _atext
_btxt
_2rdacontent
337 _acomputer
_bc
_2rdamedia
338 _aonline resource
_bcr
_2rdacarrier
500 _aTitle from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 05 Oct 2015).
520 _aTo what extent should anybody who has to make model forecasts generated from detailed data analysis adjust their forecasts based on their own intuition? In this book, Philip Hans Franses, one of Europe's leading econometricians, presents the notion that many publicly available forecasts have experienced an 'expert's touch', and questions whether this type of intervention is useful and if a lighter adjustment would be more beneficial. Covering an extensive research area, this accessible book brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment from an econometric perspective. The author's analysis is based on a range of real forecasts and the datasets upon which the forecasters relied. The various motivations behind experts' modifications are considered, and guidelines for creating more useful and reliable adjusted forecasts are suggested. This book will appeal to academics and practitioners with an interest in forecasting methodology.
650 0 _aEconometric models.
650 0 _aEconomic forecasting.
650 0 _aBusiness forecasting.
776 0 8 _iPrint version:
_z9781107081598
856 4 0 _uhttps://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139963329
942 _2ddc
_cEB
999 _c9147
_d9147